Is there any glory in the ethylene glycol market before the Spring Festival in 2014?
is there any glory in the ethylene glycol market before the Spring Festival in 2014?
January 13, 2014
[China paint information] according to experts, for many ethylene glycol merchants, the trend over the years is an important reference for judging the future. From the comparison of the two years, the trend of price rise and fall is basically the same, and there is only a big difference in the relatively simple value of absolute fixture design. Therefore, at the end of 2013, some businesses gradually built up their positions and worked together to push up the market. During this period, methanol (29 good rock wool market price is basically fixed at more than 5000 yuan/ton, 39, 33.00, 1.14%), aromatics, etc. are in the rising channel, creating a good atmosphere for pushing up. However, what runs counter to the Bulls' intentions is the fundamental decline. In 2013, most polyester factories were struggling. Take poy75d/36f in Cixi as an example, the annual profit is basically negative. In addition to the profitability of large-scale factories, small and medium-sized chemical fiber factories basically realized a comprehensive loss, or a loss of some varieties in the whole year, at the "seminar on the environmental impact of flame retardant 6 bromocyclo102 alkyl (hbcdd)" jointly hosted by the persistent organic pollutants research center of Tsinghua University and the persistent organic pollutants Professional Committee of the Chinese society of Environmental Sciences on September 25, 2014
this situation may be difficult to form a substantial drag in the short term. However, in the long term, polyester production capacity continues to expand, and the industry is bound to usher in a wave of industry reshuffle. The elimination of backward production capacity and the effect of scale concentration should be seen in the next few years. During the Spring Festival, the downstream polyester maintenance capacity exceeded 6million tons, which is bound to affect the total downstream inventory. Some large factories have started stocking since mid December, and many small and medium-sized factories have given up stocking to cope with continuous losses by stopping for maintenance. In the first and middle of January, factory procurement was difficult to satisfy people, while the demand for short supply of futures in January was more objective. According to incomplete statistics, the import volume of ethylene glycol fluctuated little in the fourth quarter, and the downstream polyester start-up decreased significantly in the same period, which directly led to the slow increase of port inventory in East China. Since September, the port inventory has increased significantly, but it has not exceeded the peak of the year
it is worth noting that at present, the international inventory of the Yangtze River is getting higher and higher, and its proportion in the total inventory has increased significantly. Among them, August accounted for 46.88%, and the end of December accounted for 60.18%; The storage of ethylene glycol in the short-term international warehouse will be easy to increase but difficult to reduce. Although ethylene glycol is full of bad news and bulls are already selling profit, the effect of spot buying is obvious. Every time the market trend is around 7550, a large number of buyers emerge, stimulating the selling price to rise again. Bulls have no intention of giving in to buying and selling spot goods at a low price. It is expected that there is limited room for the decline of spot goods in early January. There is still a chance for bulls to rebound upward due to the dual role of buying promotion and capital pulling. At that time, bulls will continue to sell profit taking, bears also intend to sell high and short, and the confrontation between bulls in January is still white hot. Experts believe that ethylene glycol is difficult to achieve brilliance before the Spring Festival, but there are still short-term operation opportunities